Categories: STOCK RESEARCH REPORT

📊 RBL Share Price: Inverse Head and Shoulders Breakout with 200 MA Retest and Fundamental Support

There are moments in the market when a stock’s chart seems to whisper a quiet shift in trend—when old resistances become supports and patterns take shape that hint at a deeper story. One such moment is unfolding on the RBL share price and chart, where a classic Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern has emerged alongside a 200-day Moving Average (MA) breakout.

But there’s more. Behind this clean technical setup lies a story of recovery, growth, and renewed institutional interest—making the RBL share price one worth examining both technically and fundamentally.

📐RBL Share Price Chart Talk: The Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern in RBL Bank

RBL share price and Chart

On the daily chart, RBL Bank is showcasing a textbook Inverse Head and Shoulders formation:

Left Shoulder: A decline followed by a short-lived bounce.
Head: A deeper correction that flushed out weaker hands.
Right Shoulder: A higher low, suggesting the worst might be behind.
Neckline: Recently broken with strong price momentum.

This structure is often viewed as a bullish reversal pattern—an indicator that sellers are losing control and buyers are stepping in.

Volume expansion on the breakout gives further validation to the pattern. It suggests that this is not just a retail-driven move; larger market participants may be entering the game.

🧭 200-Day Moving Average: RBL Share Price

The 200-day MA is one of the most respected long-term indicators in technical analysis. It often acts as a psychological barrier—once breached, it can trigger larger structural moves.

In RBL Bank’s case:

Price broke above the 200-day MA decisively.
It then pulled back to retest this level as support.
The price held firm, suggesting the breakout could be valid and not a false signal.

This kind of “breakout-retest-hold” is powerful—it shows that what was once resistance has now turned into support.

🔬 Beyond the Chart: RBL Bank’s Fundamental Landscape

While the technical story is compelling, it’s important to ask: Is the business behind the chart turning around too? According to RBL Bank’s latest financials and commentary, the answer is increasingly yes.

📄 Recent Highlights from Q4 FY25:

Net Interest Income (NII): ₹15,640 Cr (down 1.3% QoQ), but broadly in line with estimates.
Net Profit: ₹870 Cr (▲83.8% QoQ, ▼76.1% YoY) due to elevated credit costs.
Provisions: ₹7,851 Cr, down significantly from Q3.
Gross NPA (GNPA): Improved to 2.6% from 2.9%.
PCR (Provision Coverage Ratio): Rose sharply to 89% from 82.2%.

These numbers may not scream perfection, but they clearly point to stabilization—a theme echoed in the bank’s management commentary.

🏦 Asset Quality: The Turning Point?

One of the biggest concerns with RBL has historically been its exposure to unsecured segments like microfinance (MFI), personal loans, and credit cards. But now:

The MFI SMA pool shrunk from ₹5.5B to ₹3.8B, indicating improved collections.
Slippages declined 130 bps QoQ, showing early signs of quality recovery.
NNPA (Net NPA) dropped to just 0.3%, the lowest in recent quarters.

These improvements suggest the worst may be behind for the bank in terms of credit stress—especially as provisioning has already been frontloaded.

💼 Deposits and Advances: A Resilient Growth Story

RBL Bank’s deposits grew by 7.2% YoY, while retail deposits surged 29% YoY—a sign of increasing trust from retail customers. At the same time, CASA improved to 34.1%, an encouraging trend in a rising rate environment.

On the lending side:

Total advances rose 2.4% QoQ to ₹92,618 Cr.
Secured retail assets grew 43% YoY.
Business loans and commercial banking were strong segments.

The strategy is clear: pivot away from risky unsecured retail toward more stable secured lending and granular wholesale exposure.

📈 Key Financial Metrics (FY25–FY27E)

Metric	FY25	FY26E	FY27E
Net Interest Income (₹ Cr)	63,949	68,086	81,456
Net Profit (₹ Cr)	7,171	12,973	15,598
Loan Growth (%)	10.3%	13.6%	15.9%
GNPA (%)	2.6%	2.4%	2.9%
NNPA (%)	0.3%	0.2%	0.8%
RoA (%)	0.5%	0.8%	0.9%
RoE (%)	4.7%	8.0%	8.9%
P/ABV (x)	0.7x	0.69x	0.65x

Source: Centrum Broking, Company Filings

📊RBL Share Price Valuation: Undervalued Relative to Peers

Despite recent improvements, RBL trades at just 0.65x FY27E P/ABV, significantly lower than peers like Federal Bank (0.9x), City Union Bank (1.1x), and IDFC First Bank (1.1x). This undervaluation reflects past skepticism—but it also opens the door to re-rating if the recovery sustains.

The bank has guided for:

Loan growth of 16–18% in FY26
25–30% growth in secured retail assets
10–12% growth in wholesale lending

If this pans out, upside potential exists—not just technically, but fundamentally too.

🎯 Conclusion: When Technicals Meet Fundamentals

The RBL share price is sending signals that can’t be ignored. A well-formed Inverse Head and Shoulders, a breakout above the 200 MA, and now a successful retest—these are not everyday patterns. Combine that with:

Improving asset quality,
Rising provision coverage,
A pivot toward secured lending, and
Strong deposit traction—

—and you have a setup that is attracting attention beyond just chart watchers.

⚠️ Important Note: As per SEBI guidelines, we do not offer investment advice or target prices. Always consult with a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Also you can see same pattern on UTI Share

Tapan Das